Monday, September 28, 2015

Abacus, Nanos: Where Is the NDP Losing Support?

Two national polls this morning: the daily Nanos, and an Abacus poll with a nice sample. These are the first polls conducted entirely after the French debate.

Relative to the last independent Nanos 3 days ago, Nanos has the NDP down 4.2 points nationally, and the Conservatives up 4.1 points nationally. These shifts are right on the edge of statistical significance, meaning that if nothing were happening in reality, there would only be a 5% chance that we'd see them. The NDP has lost 5-6 points in Atlantic Canada, Québec and Ontario, while Conservative support has increased mainly in Ontario, the Prairies, and Western Canada. The Bloc is up 7 points in Québec.

The Abacus poll shows similar movement nationally, but has a somewhat different provincial take. The NDP dropped 4 points and the Conservatives gained 3 points in the past 2 weeks. But regionally, the NDP suffered a large drop only in Québec, all the way from 47% to 30%, with also a smaller drop in BC wiping out its lead there. Similarly, the only large gain by the Conservatives was in Québec, where they doubled their vote share from 10% to 20%. Consistent with Nanos, the Bloc was also up 6 points in Québec.

There were also three Forum riding polls. In Ottawa West--Nepean, the Liberal projected gain finds corroboration in the poll. In Edmonton Centre, the adjustment made to the model in favour of the Conservatives, which was based on an Environics poll, finds support. And in St. Albert--Edmonton, ex-Tory independent incumbent Brent Rathgeber is closing in, but the Conservatives still hold a lead. No further riding adjustment is thus needed.

The updated projection shows:

CON - 138, +1 (33.4%, +0.4%)
NDP - 106, -2 (27.2%, -0.2%)
LIB - 91 (29.1%, -0.1%)
BQ - 2, +1 (4.2%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, -0.1%)

The NDP lost two more seats in Québec. This trend will only accelerate if Abacus is right: the polling average (which puts roughly 30% weight on today's two polls combined) puts the NDP at 36% there, but Abacus has them at 30%.

Without the turnout adjustment, I have (update: fixed error in spreadsheet):

CON - 129 127 (31.6%)
NDP - 107 109 (27.9%)
LIB - 99 (29.8%)
BQ - 2 (4.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)

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