Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Nanos: Tories Slump

The daily Nanos has the NDP back in front, with the Tories dropping two full points. That's a significant drop at the 90% confidence level (though not at the 95% level). The Liberals went from a 1.5% deficit in ON yesterday to a 5.1% lead.

The new projection gives:

CON - 128, -2 (30.8%, -0.2%)
NDP - 115, +1 (31.1%, +0.2%)
LIB - 94, +1 (28.9%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

The NDP is back in front of the popular vote projection. This is the 7th day in a row where the NDP has been between 30.9% and 31.3%, the Tories between 30.5% and 31.0%, and the Liberals between 28.7% and 29.0%. In other words, trends are flat like Saskatchewan.

Without the turnout adjustment, it's really tight:

NDP - 119 (31.9%)
CON - 118 (29.2%)
LIB - 100 (29.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

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