Friday, September 18, 2015

The Daily Nanos Lottery: NDP

Another day, another change of leader in the Nanos poll: it's the NDP today. After a few days of having the NDP low in Québec (well, around 42%, low by this campaign's standard), Nanos has it back up to 47.8%. On the flip side, Nanos sees the NDP lead gone in BC, which it pegs a virtual three-way tie.

The new projection gives:

CON - 131 130, +1 (30.9%, -0.1%)
NDP - 114 115, -2 (30.5%, +0.1%)
LIB - 92, +1 (28.5%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.6%)
BQ - 0 (3.5%, -0.1%)

Why did the NDP lose seats? That's entirely due to the inclusion of this Mainstreet poll in BC, which has the Tories marginally ahead. Due to the large sample of the poll, 2218 BC respondents, the formula assigns it a high weight: over 33% of the projection for BC. I am not adjusting the national figures to account for this poll, but if I did, the Tories would gain about 0.1% at the expense of the NDP, canceling the popular vote variations you see above.

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 121 (29.3%)
NDP - 118 (31.3%)
LIB - 98 (29.3%)
GRN - 1 (6.0%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

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