Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Ipsos/Global: Tories Up, NDP Down; Nanos: Little Change

The latest Ipsos poll for Global confirms the trends that other polls have been indicating: the Conservatives are gaining, while the NDP is dropping.

Last week, Ipsos was an outlier in giving the Liberals a 9-point lead in ON; that has been erased, consistently with other polls showing a Lib/Con near-tie there. So while the Liberal national lead looks good on the surface, this is actually not a good poll for the Grits. As for the NDP, this is their best result in ON (27%) since the 9/9-15 EKOS poll, but Nanos has the NDP relatively low there (21.4%). So the best bet is that the NDP is, in fact, stable in ON, around 24% (unadjusted).

The updated projection gives:

CON - 139, +1 (33.5%, +0.1%)
NDP - 106 (27.0%, -0.2%)
LIB - 90, -1 (29.3%, +0.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%, -0.2%)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 128 (31.8%)
NDP - 109 (27.7%)
LIB - 98 (30.1%)
BQ - 2 (4.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)

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