Monday, September 7, 2015

Projection Update: Start of Nanos Nightly Tracking

Nanos has started its nightly tracking, and the first batch of results is here. This is the third poll in a row where the Tories are third in the national vote share.

The updated projection shows:

CON - 123, -3 (29.3%, -0.8%)
NDP - 120, -2 (31.6%, -0.4%)
LIB - 94, +5 (29.0%, +1.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, +0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.9%)

This is another good poll for the Liberals in ON: a 6-point lead over the Tories, and a 13-point lead over the NDP.

Note that without the turnout adjustment, I would have:

NDP - 124 (32.3%)
CON - 112 (27.6%)
LIB - 101 (29.6%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)

Methodological note: Nanos also produced numbers for the last week of its weekly tracking (which predates the nightly tracking), but only the national numbers are available through CTV. Thus, for now, those numbers are being ignored. If the breakdown becomes available, I will update this projection, but any change would be slight, as that poll would only have a weight of around 2%. Update: The breakdown became available, and unsurprisingly did not cause any change in the seat projection. The only change made to the above numbers is that the Conservative projected vote share went up by 0.1%.

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