Sunday, September 13, 2015

Nanos: Grits from First to Third

First, you can now follow me on Twitter: @CdnElectWatch

The daily Nanos is out, and bears bad news for the Liberals in ON: their 7.5% lead over the Tories from yesterday has turned into a 0.4% deficit! Liberals shouldn't panic: this result merely places Nanos in line with other polls published in the past week that show ON to be tight two-way Liberal/Conservative race. Indeed, the only two other polls showing the Liberals with a sizable lead in ON were both conducted just before the story of Alan Kurdi emerged (Forum 8/30-9/1 and Léger 8/31-9/2).

The new projection rewards the Tories:

CON - 130, +3 (31.3%, +0.3%)
NDP - 115, -1 (31.5%, +0.1%)
LIB - 92, -2 (28.7%, -0.2%)
GRN - 1 (4.1%, -0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.4%, -0.1%)

Without the turnout adjustment, I would get:

NDP - 121 (32.3%)
CON - 120 (29.7%)
LIB - 96 (29.4%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.4%)

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