Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Mainstreet Riding Polls

Mainstreet Research put out three riding polls today. These are not included in projections for now, but I may incorporate them closer to the election. Below is a quick comparison of the current projection (without turnout adjustment) and the riding poll results:

Calgary Confederation: I have the Tories up by 3%, Mainstreet has the Liberals up by 1%
This one is simply very close.

Spadina--Fort York: I have the NDP up by 16%, Mainstreet has the NDP up by 6%
A Forum riding poll last month had the NDP up by 29%. So if you average the two riding polls, you get close to the projection.

Ajax: I have the Liberals up by 15%, Mainstreet has the Tories up by 2%
This one is more of a head-scratcher. Chris Alexander did get a fair bit of attention in the news two weeks ago, but it was hardly flattering. In any case, either way, he is clearly in danger of losing his seat.

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