Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Nanos: Stability Except in Québec

Today's Nanos is out, and it's a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP has fallen slightly further behind, now 6 points behind its competitors. Outside Québec, all parties are within their usual ranges. In Québec, while changes have been small over the past 3 days, the NDP reached a new low (34%), while the Tories and Bloc reached new highs (20%, 19%) in the Nanos nightly tracking.

The new projection shows little change:

CON - 139 (33.5%)
NDP - 105, -1 (26.8%, -0.2%)
LIB - 91, +1 (29.5%, +0.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%)

Without the turnout adjustment:

CON - 127 (31.8%)
NDP - 109 (27.5%)
LIB - 99 (30.3%)
BQ - 2 (4.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)

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