Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Nanos: Liberals Retake Lead by 0.1%

Today's Nanos poll shows, once again, little notable variation from yesterday's, other than another change in lead that has the Liberals marginally in front of the Conservatives.

The current seat projection is:

CON - 134 (31.6%, +0.1%)
NDP - 112, -1 (29.4%, -0.2%)
LIB - 91, +1 (29.5%, +0.3%)
GRN - 1 (4.8%, -0.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%)

The notable change in the projection is that the NDP has now slid to third place in the adjusted polling average, behind the Liberals. However, the NDP retains a healthy seat advantage over their rivals. The main reason for this is the Québec vs. Ontario comparison: in QC, the NDP leads the Liberals by 17.2%, while in ON, the Liberals lead the NDP by 10.6%. In terms of number of people, those are actually roughly the same due to ON's larger population. But while the NDP gets 47 more projected seats than the Liberals in QC, the Liberals get only 24 more projected seats than the NDP in ON.

Without the turnout adjustment, the parties have essentially completely converged in the polling average, and the seat count order is the reverse of the vote share order.

CON - 124 (30.0%)
NDP - 116 (30.1%)
LIB - 97 (30.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.8%)

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