Saturday, September 26, 2015

Applying the Updated Model: Little Net Change

I have now applied the updated projection model, as outlined in the previous post. The net change is a gain of one seat by the NDP at the expense of the Conservatives, giving:

CON - 137
NDP - 108
LIB - 91
GRN - 1
BQ - 1

However, 11 ridings actually changed hands:

- NS: LIB +3, NDP -1, CON -2. The Tories are wiped out from NS due to the adjustments in Central Nova and Cumberland--Colchester. The compensation for the NB adjustment is currently enough to tip South Shore--St. Margaret's from the NDP to the Liberals.

- NB: CON +1, LIB -1. NB is projected to swing less violently against the Conservatives than the rest of Atlantic Canada, currently allowing them to keep Miramichi--Grand Lake.

- QC: NDP +1, CON -1. The NDP keeps Jonquière thanks to the adjustment there.

- ON: NDP +1, LIB -1. The adjustment in Toronto takes from the Liberals Eglinton--Lawrence (to CPC), York Centre (to CPC) and Beaches--East York (to NDP). (Without the adjustment, the Tories would be completely wiped out in Toronto. Even with the adjustment, the NDP will likely not win a single seat in the 905.) However, the Liberals get back Sault Ste. Marie due to the Northern ON adjustment, and Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas due to the compensation in the rest of ON.

- AB: CON +1, LIB -1. The Liberals' sole AB projected seat, Edmonton Centre, goes back to the Tories.

There are currently 51 races decided by 5% or less in the projection, and 51 more decided by between 5% and 10%. Where are they?

Region (total # of seats): # decided by less than 5%, by 5-10%
- Atlantic (32): 5, 4
- Montreal area (38): 2, 6
- Rest of Québec (40): 4, 7
- Toronto area (53): 17, 13
- Rest of Ontario (68): 7, 7
- MB/SK (28): 3, 2
- Alberta (34): 3, 2
- Vancouver area (22): 4, 6
- Rest of BC (20): 5, 4
- Nunavut, decided by less than 5%

Note that over half the seats in the Toronto area are close, and all 30 of those races involve a Liberal in contention. Guess where Trudeau will be spending lots of time in the next 3 weeks? BC also has disproportionately many close races: 45% of the races there, both in the Vancouver area and elsewhere, are tight. By contrast, in the remainder of the country, only 22% of the races are close.

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