Nanos has the NDP up 12% in Québec, but if you're a junkie like me, that's old news. The big story is that the NDP has eaten into the Liberal vote in Ontario, allowing the Conservatives to build a 21.2% lead even while losing 1%. This would give them around 70 seats in Ontario, and Harper would get a majority with room to spare.
Because the NDP is in the "paying zone" in Québec, this poll has a dramatic effect on the projection. The Dippers pick up
The Conservatives pick up a seat from the NDP in BC due to methodological change. They also gain two from the Liberals in Ontario, one of which is also due to methodological change.
CON - 157
NDP - 67
LIB - 57
BQ - 26
IND - 1
The average Conservative national lead over the NDP is 13%. That's a drop of 0.8%, since the previous update would have shown 13.8% using the new formula.
The Tories have now gained 7 seats in 5 days, putting them in majority territory. However,
I will be pretty busy today, so I might not be able to post again until around 5pm or so. But do check back then for an update!