Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

EKOS: Tories by 7.3

Today's EKOS survey has the Tories marginally up, and the NDP and Liberals marginally down. The regional numbers didn't change by much: the Tories recover from a bad day in Atlantic Canada and make it a three-way race, which is consistent with what the poll average says. They are 2% up in Ontario, which pushes their lead to 11.5% - a good sign for Harper.

In Québec, the NDP is stable at a high 37.4%. As a result, the Bloc and Conservatives both lose ground, two and one seat(s) respectively in the projection, all to the NDP. The NDP is now projected to win a majority of Québec seats.

CON - 152
NDP - 80
LIB - 56
BQ - 19
IND - 1

The average Conservative lead is up a whisker, at 10.4%.


Skoblin said...

Dr. EW,

Looks like we might be starting to see some stability. The last four polls by EKOS seem to be remarkably consistent - all within the MOE.

Skoblin said...

And a new riding poll - Trois-Rivieres

NDP 42
BQ 28
CPC 17
Green 5
Rhino 2

Election Watcher said...

Thanks again Skoblin! Trois-Rivières is one of the two Bloc seats that flipped to the NDP with this update. Good to see confimation!

The next seat to flip in Québec would be Gilles Duceppe's own...

Yes, things are getting more stable. I'm guessing that my final projection will be somewhere around 150 C, 88 N, 55 L, 15 B if the Liberals hold up in Ontario.