Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 7.8

Today's Nanos poll has the Conservatives down slightly, with the Liberals and the NDP gaining. These trends were apparent in Ontario, where the Liberal 4.4% lead is their best result of the campaign, and the NDP 18.5% is close to their high point. Also, in Québec, the Grits rebounded from yesterday's low of 16% to almost 20%, while after a one day blip, the Bloc is back to the low 30s.

Also, Macleans has posted the regional breakdown from the recent Innovative Research poll (I'm not sure if they just added the document, or if I had originally missed it), which is therefore added to the projection. All numbers are very close to recent polling averages.

No change in the aggregate projection:

CON - 150
LIB - 79
BQ - 48
NDP - 31

The average Conservative national lead is now 11.8%.


Anonymous said...

actually nanos has them up 7.8% not 7.6 ...

Election Watcher said...

Right, thanks for catching the typo.

Anonymous said...

I forgot to thank you for this most awesome sight. I check it every day.

I cant believe the media focus on the inconsequential gaffes. The CBC is looking more and more like the Enquirer especially today with the Guergis stuff.

Election Watcher said...

I'm glad you like this blog and are visiting it often!

It's not just the CBC, but every media is guilty. I think it's partly money talking - we Canadians say we care about the big issues, but gaffe coverage is what gets the ratings. In that sense, Canadians are getting the coverage that they deserve, just like we get the politicians that we deserve.

The other issue, which is squarely the responsibility of the media, is that reporters seem to be too lazy to analyze the real issues. Everybody can report on gaffes and speculate on their impact on the campaign. To zero in on the social and economic effects of various policies, however, is a lot harder. And, let's face it, the academics that can help us the most in evaluating those policies are usually not exactly fun to listen to.

Moreover, when the neutral experts almost all lean to one side (e.g. economists on cutting the income tax vs. GST in 2006), emphasizing that fact is seen as being biased. The media avoids this by having "experts" provided by think tanks with known biases (e.g. CCPA, Fraser) - which is almost as useless as talking to party officials.