Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Forum: Tories by 11 over NDP, 13 over Grits; NDP by 9 in Québec

And yet another poll confirms the NDP's meteoric rise, this one by Forum Research. This survey has the NDP vaulting past the Liberals nationally, 25% to 23%. Just like the Liberals, the Conservatives also lose 2 points, to 36%. Ominously for Ignatieff, his party falls to 28% in Ontario, 14% behind the Tories, while the NDP rises to 20%. And this poll shows the largest NDP lead yet in Québec: 34% to 25%.

In the Ontario projection, the Grits lose a seat to the Tories, who relinquish one to the NDP. But the Liberals make up for it by taking one from the Bloc:

CON - 148
LIB - 75
BQ - 44
NDP - 40
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead is 11.6%.

The NDP does not gain any additional projected seats in Québec, but is now within 2% of tripling their seat count to 9. Currently, I have Québec at B 31%, N 25%, C 20%, L 19%.

Forum Research states that based on their poll alone, the projected seat count would be 149 C, 71 N, 64 L, 24 B. That PM Layton scenario I described earlier today just got more likely!

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