Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, April 29, 2011

EKOS: Tories by 4.8; Nanos: Tories by 5.2

Two more polls suggest that the NDP rise continues at a much slower pace, but tell different stories about the Liberals.

First, today's EKOS survey has the Grits down to 20% nationally, a drop of 2.3%, while the NDP rises by 2.2% to 29.7%. In Ontario, the NDP rises by 3.4% to 26.2%, pulling slight more from the Grits than the Tories, the gap between whom grows to 12.3%. It's now a virtual tie for second place in Ontario. In Québec, the NDP ascension continues, and they build a 13.4% lead over the Bloc. The Liberals tank to 13%. Regionals for other areas will become available later.

Update: EKOS regionals outside Québec and Ontario are now up. The NDP now trails the Tories by just 5.8% in BC.

In the Nanos poll, however, all parties are essentially flat nationally. In Ontario, the Grits gain several points from the Tories (the gap shrinks to 6.5%) while the NDP is flat, which is very different from what EKOS shows. EKOS' sample is much larger, however. In Québec, the Bloc drops to 23.6%, 17.8% behind the NDP. The NDP jumps by 8.3% in BC, and are now within 8 points of the Tories.

In the projection, the NDP takes 5 more seats from the Bloc, which now risks losing official party status. The Dippers also gain one from the Tories in BC. (You may notice that the Tory count went up. That's because I had made mistakes in the previous update, now corrected. Sorry.)

CON - 152
NDP - 87
LIB - 55
BQ - 13
IND - 1

The average Tory national lead shrinks to 9.1%.

I will post another update shortly incorporating a bunch of new riding polls, so check back soon!


Anonymous said...

what are the 13 seats that your model predicts that the BQ will keep?

Guy said...

If the Cons are in the high 140's/low 150's, how many blue Libs will cross the floor to prevent the NDP from gaining power?

Dave Roberts said...

A new Alberta regional poll:

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Dave. Guy: I don't think too many. Most Liberals left would be in very progressive ridings. Of course, there could be the odd David Emerson...

In Eastern Québec (6):
- Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
- Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia
- Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouta--Les Basques
- Manicouagan
- Montmorency--La Haute-Côte-Nord
- Chicoutimi--Le Fjord

In Southeastern Québec (4):
- Sherbrooke
- Richmond--Arthabaska
- Saint-Jean
- Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour

In Northeastern Greater Montréal (3):
- Montcalm
- Joliette
- La Pointe-de-l'Île

There are several very tight races just north of Montréal, like Terrebonne--Blainville, La Rivière-du-Nord, Repentigny, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Laurentides--Labelle. We're supposed to have a poll in close-by Berthier--Maskinongé in an hour - that'll give a better sense of what's going on there.

And of course, tight races as well in three Bloc Montréal châteaux-forts: Laurier--Ste-Marie, Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga.