Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 13.6, Liberals Collapse in Ontario

Today's Nanos poll points to a strong Conservative majority. It has the Tories above 44% everywhere outside Québec, where they drop to 14%. In particular, the Conservatives lead by a whopping 18.5% in Ontario, which would net them 72 seats in that province against just 20 for the Liberals. Interesting, the Liberals are collapsing on their own in Ontario: the NDP has made no progress at all there according to Nanos, and would also lose seats to the Tories.

The other big news is that Nanos now has the NDP ahead of the Bloc in Québec, by 2.8%. So not only is the orange wave there holding, it is actually strengthening. The Liberals actually manage 22% in La Belle Province, suggesting that the NDP is not drawing too much of their support.

In the projection, the Conservatives take two seats in Ontario, one Liberal and one New Democrat. The NDP more than makes this up by gaining two from the Bloc, which falls below 40:

CON - 154
LIB - 70
NDP - 44
BQ - 39
IND - 1

The Conservative average national lead hits 13.1%, right around where it was during the first week. This projection gives them an effective majority, as independent André Arthur almost always supports them.

Note that I have not yet started phasing in a GTA adjustment, which would further increase the Conservative seat count. If the election were today, I'd say the Tories would have a 60% chance at an outright majority.

Update: I know people might ask about this, so here it is: based on this poll alone, I get 169 C, 54 L, 47 N, 37 B, 1 I.


Fred said...

Great blog. Keep up the good work.p

Election Watcher said...