Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Forum: Tories by 12; Nanos: Tories by 9.5; EKOS: Tories by 8.5

Another three polls today after the four yesterday - they really do come in bunches, don't they? None of the Liberal and Conservative numbers for today suggest movement, so I'll focus on the NDP and Bloc results.

The Nanos daily poll shows no notable movement on the Bloc side. However, the NDP is down everywhere, resulting in a 2.3% national drop to a paltry 14.9%. The Dippers lost 3.6% in Ontario to 11.2%, and 2.4% in Québec to 16.5%.

Fortunately for the NDP, the two other polls do not suggest that they've dropped to abysmal levels in Ontario or that they've lost the gained ground in Québec. Indeed, EKOS has them has pretty normal levels in those areas (though low in the West), while Forum Research puts them at a strong 20% nationally and 23% in Québec. These two polls are both terrible for the Bloc, which is at 33% and 27% respectively. A couple of more polls like this and the Bloc would drop significantly in the projection.

For now, the Liberals make modest gains:

CON - 149
LIB - 76
BQ - 50
NDP - 33

The average Tory national lead decreases slightly, to 10.6%.


Anonymous said...

I suspect the folks moving away from the Bloc will be undecided until after the french debate. If it looks like Ignatieff has a shot at forming a government, they will flock to him and change the landscape in Quebec, so as to have representation in the new Liberal government

Earl said...

New IR poll has Tories ahead by 15:

Election Watcher said...

Anon: That's an interesting theory, though lots of Bloc folks view Liberals as too centralizing and would prefer the Tories in gov't...

Earl: Thanks! C 161, L 63, B 51, N 33 on the Ipsos poll alone.