Skoblin alerts me to a Léger poll in Chambly--Borduas conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, showing the Bloc 13% ahead of the NDP, 37-24. This is a win for the model, and does not result in any adjustment: I had the Bloc lead at 14%.
The independent candidate in the riding, a humorist who often uses vulgar language, is at 15%, tied for third with the Liberal candidate and way ahead of the Conservative candidate at 7%. Francophone southern Québec shows no sign of giving Harper or Ignatieff another look.
I was half-inclined to the idea that of the two opposing federalist parties - Conservatives and Liberals - the Liberals would be suffering the most from the apparent rise in NDP support in Quebec. Instead, in both the Brome-Missisquoi and Chambly-Borduas riding polls, it looks like the Conservatives have been hardest hit. Is this what your model has anticipated - or is this unexpected?
Curious about the identity of the one Independent projected to win. I would have assumed Mr. Arthur but your polling seems to suggest not...
The independent candidate is Jean-Francois Mercier, a Quebec satirist known as "le gros cave".
Skoblin: That's an interesting observation. The model currently has the Liberals down 4.4 points from 2008, and the Conservatives down 2.1 points, so it assumes the Grits to be hit more in every riding. Obviously, this could be a poor assumption.
If you look at the Quebec City area riding polls, it's the Liberals that are hit by the NDP rise. My guess is that in a given riding, the NDP takes relatively more from whichever party does not have a chance.
If this is true, then the NDP would make fewer direct gains against their main opponents than expected, which would dampen their seat count.
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