Monday, October 19, 2015

Projected Winner by Riding

Click here for a summary of the projection. Click here for the complete trends since early September.

I'm a little too tired to do the maps (I don't have an automatic system set up), so I'll simply list the winner in each of the 166 ridings decided by under 12%. (The rest is presumably obvious, though feel free to ask; I do list ridings decided by more than 12% if there is only one such riding for that party in the area.)

I expect around 60 ridings to be incorrectly called, for an accuracy of 80-85%. Below 80% would be disappointing, and below 75% would be a bad night. Above 85% would be good, and above 90% is very unlikely unless the aggregate projection is nearly on the dot. Here is how other projectors and I did in 2011 - success rates hovered around 80%.

*89 ridings decided by 4-12% (10-33% chance of being wrong - potentially more if three-way race)
**77 ridings decided by less than 4% (more than 33% chance of being wrong)
Note that the 172 other ridings still have an up to 10% chance of being wrong - so there will very probably be some mistakes among them.
(The model actually gives 62 ridings decided by less than 4% and 96 ridings decided by 4-12%, but I upgraded the uncertainty in some cases in the list below, mostly due to riding polls showing closer-than-expected races.)

BC (Vancouver Island)
NDP (4): Cowichan--Malahat--Langford**, Nanaimo--Ladysmith*, Victoria*, Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke
CON (2): Courtenay--Alberni**, North Island--Powell River**
GRN (1): Saanich--Gulf Islands

BC (Lower Mainland)
CON (11): Burnaby North--Seymour**, Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam**, South Surrey--White Rock**, Steveston--Richmond East**, Richmond Centre*, 6 others
LIB (10): Delta**, Fleetwood--Port Kells**, Surrey Centre*, Vancouver Granville*, Vancouver South*, West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country*, 4 others
NDP (5): Burnaby South*, Port Moody--Coquitlam*, Vancouver Kingsway*, 2 others

BC (Interior and North)
CON (7): Cariboo--Prince George**, Kootenay--Columbia**, Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola*, Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo*, North Okanagan--Shuswap*, 2 others
NDP (2): South Okanagan--West Kootenay**, Skeena--Bulkley Valley

Alberta
CON (32): Calgary Centre**, Calgary Skyview**, Edmonton Griesbach**, Edmonton Mill Woods**, Edmonton Centre*, 27 others
LIB (1): Calgary Confederation**
NDP (1): Edmonton Strathcona

Saskatchewan
CON (10): Saskatoon--Grasswood**, Saskatoon--University**, Regina--Qu'Appelle*, 7 others
NDP (3): Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River**, Regina--Lewvan**, Saskatoon West**
LIB (1): Regina--Wascana

Manitoba
CON (7): Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley*, 6 others
LIB (4)
NDP (3): Churchill--Keewatinook Aski**, Elmwood--Transcona**, Winnipeg Centre*

Northern Ontario
NDP (5): Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing*, Sudbury*, Thunder Bay--Superior North*, Timmins--James Bay*, Nickel Belt
LIB (3): Thunder Bay--Rainy River**, Sault Ste. Marie**, Nipissing--Timiskaming
CON (3): Kenora**, Huron--Bruce*, Parry Sound--Muskoka

City of Toronto
LIB (23): York Centre**, Beaches--East York*, Eglinton--Lawrence*, Parkdale--High Park*, Spadina--Fort York*, University--Rosedale*, 17 others
NDP (2): Davenport**, Toronto--Danforth

Toronto CMA outside of City of Toronto (this is a bit smaller than the 905)
LIB (23): King--Vaughan**, Newmarket--Aurora**, Oakville North--Burlington**, Brampton Centre*, Brampton North*, Oakville*, Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill*, Vaughan--Woodbridge*, 15 others
CON (5): Milton**, Thornhill*, 3 others

Rest of Ontario
CON (28): Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound**, Kitchener South--Hespeler**, Niagara Falls**, Northumberland--Peterborough South**, Simcoe--Grey**, Simcoe North**, Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte*, Cambridge*, Carleton*, Chatham-Kent--Leamington*, Durham*, Essex*, Flamborough--Glanbrook*, Hastings--Lennox and Addington*, Lambton--Kent--Middlesex*, Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston*, Oshawa*, Perth--Wellington*, Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke*, Sarnia--Lambton*, 8 others
LIB (22): Bay of Quinte**, Brantford--Brant**, Burlington**, Kitchener--Conestoga**, Niagara Centre**, St. Catharines**, Haldimand--Norfolk*, Kanata-Carleton*, Nepean*, 13 others
NDP (7): Hamilton East--Stoney Creek**, Hamilton Mountain**, Ottawa Centre**, London--Fanshawe*, Windsor--Tecumseh*, 2 others

Island of Montréal
LIB (13): LaSalle--Émard--Verdun*, 12 others
NDP (4): Hochelaga**, La Pointe-de-l'Île**, Outremont**, Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie*
BQ (1): Laurier--Sainte-Marie**

Montréal CMA off the Island of Montréal
NDP (12): Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne**, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin**, La Prairie*, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles*, Mirabel*, Châteauguay--Lacolle*, Thérèse-De Blainville*, Longueuil--Saint-Hubert*, Montcalm*, Terrebonne*, Repentigny*, Rivière-du-Nord
LIB (6): Montarville**, Vaudreuil--Soulanges**, Laval--Les Îles*, Vimy*, 2 others
BQ (2): Beloeil--Chambly**, Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères**

Quebec City CMA
CON (6): Beauport--Limoilou**, Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles*, Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier*, 3 others
LIB (2): Louis-Hébert**, Québec**
BQ (1): Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d'Orléans--Charlevoix**

Rest of Québec
NDP (15): Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou**, Berthier--Maskinongé**, Joliette**, Laurentides--Labelle**, Manicouagan**, Abitibi--Témiscamingue*, Chicoutimi--Le Fjord*, Drummond*, Hull--Aylmer*, Jonquière*, Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot*, Saint-Jean*, Shefford*, Trois-Rivières*, Gatineau
BQ (6): Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia**, Compton--Stanstead**, Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques**, Salaberry--Suroît**, Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel*, Sherbrooke*
LIB (5): Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation**, Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine**, Saint-Maurice--Champlain**, Brome--Missisquoi*, Pontiac*
CON (5)

New Brunswick
LIB (6): Saint John--Rothesay**, Miramichi--Grand Lake*, 4 others
CON (3): Fundy Royal*, New Brunswick Southwest*, Tobique--Mactaquac*
NDP (1): Acadie--Bathurst

Nova Scotia
LIB (10): Central Nova*, Halifax*, 8 others
NDP (1): Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook*

Prince Edward Island
LIB (4): Egmont*, 3 others

Newfoundland and Labrador
LIB (6): St. John's South--Mount Pearl*, 5 others
NDP (1): St. John's East

Territories
LIB (3): Northwest Territories**, Nunavut**, Yukon

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

@ElectionWatch, Want to say thank you for all the continued hard work, late nights and for the amazing blog. Must be such tiring work. The blog is incredibly informative and also, I was wondering maybe you should post a link for voters if they need to vote on Election day for riding information and the like. If the Liberals win, and/or if they are supported by the NDP, I'm almost certain they will repeal the (Un)Fair Elections Act and make it a lot more easier to vote and even bring in online voting so I think your blog would actually become super popular and helpful! Plus, you are also very knowledgeable about a lot of issues which would guide a lot of uninformed voters on their choices. Thanks for taking the time to answer all questions and comments too! Much Appreciated!

Election Watcher said...

Thanks! It's not too tiring, apart from yesterday with the avalanche of polls - good thing it wasn't a work day! I'm writing a post on projections around the web, and will include a link to Elections Canada - thanks for the suggestion.

Gideon said...

Are you going to give an incumbent adjustment to close ridings?

Anonymous said...

It would have to be a Conservative landslide for the Conservatives win two seats on Vancouver Island

Election Watcher said...

@Gideon: No. I probably should, but didn't bother, partly because the size of the incumbent effect is usually tiny, except for a few cases where it is huge.

@Anonymous: Both of those are very close. Note that I have the Tories 7% ahead of the NDP provincially. If the NDP manages to close the gap, those seats should go NDP.

Anonymous said...

From being in those two Vancouver Island ridings....you are totally incorrect...these two north Island ridings are very Libertarian/Reform minded people, who will and have many times voted Conservative... CEW has done an excellent job on all predictions and I believe they are bang on with these two....very close, but leaning right.