Monday, October 5, 2015

Ipsos: NDP Slide in QC and ON Corroborated

Like Nanos over the past few days, Ipsos for Global has seen an erosion of NDP support in all-important Québec and Ontario: the NDP is down 5 points and 3 points respectively in these provinces. And now that Nanos has the NDP at 30% and Ipsos has it at 29% in Québec, the 28% from Léger last week no longer looks like an outlier.

Also, while the Tories took a one-point lead nationally (compared to a one-point Liberal lead last week), the Liberals took a three-point lead in ON (compared to a one-point Tory lead last week).

The updated projection has the NDP below 100 for the first time of the campaign:

CON - 143 (33.7%, +0.1%)
NDP - 98, -3 (25.8%, -0.1%)
LIB - 92, +2 (29.5%)
BQ - 4, +1 (5.1%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%, -0.2%)

This projection gives the NDP 47 seats in Québec on 31.2% of the vote. But if it is really in the 28-30% range, it would likely get 30-40 seats instead.

The Mainstreet AB poll is giving me some headaches. It has the Tories much higher than other recent polls: 63% rather than around 55%. But at the same time, it shows the Tories underperforming in Edmonton, and the Liberals outperforming their (already strongly positive) provincial swing. The Mainstreet Edmonton sample is 938, which is very large for a city of that size. To complicate matters, there have been polls in 6 of 8 Edmonton ridings, and those polls have not shown the same tendencies. One possibility is that, in the past two weeks (since the riding polls), Alberta outside Edmonton has moved toward the Conservatives, but Edmonton has not. Moreover, there is noise on the campaign trail that the Liberals are competitive - perhaps even leading - in Edmonton--Mill Woods, one of the two Edmonton ridings without a public poll; this could be depressing Tory numbers and boosting Liberals ones in Edmonton. Given this complex situation, I have decided to simply freeze the Edmonton projections until we get more numbers - a riding poll in Edmonton--Mill Woods would be particularly helpful. (Update 10/6: I unfroze the projection after the EKOS poll, but am still waiting for more corroboration before making adjustments in Edmonton.)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's now a virtual tie for second place:

CON - 131 (32.0%)
NDP - 101 (26.5%)
LIB - 100 (30.3%)
BQ - 5 (5.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)

No comments: