Sunday, October 11, 2015

Forum, Nanos: Liberals by 6

Two notes to start:
- Why do projections disagree on who's ahead? See this post for an explanation.
- For those of you interested in strategic voting (polls suggest ~30% of you are), see my guide for the advanced polls. It was written Thursday night, and does not take into account polls released subsequently.

Another day, another good poll for the Liberals. This time it's the most recent Forum poll, where the Liberals are up 2 and the NDP is down 3 since three days ago. Other than the Atlantic results, this poll is stellar for the Liberals across the board: a 4-point lead over the NDP in QC, a 15-point(!) lead in ON, and a high number of 32% across Western Canada.

Nanos has the Tories back up to a more respectable 33% in ON, which is still well back of the Liberals at 42%.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Liberals do not gain seats in the new projection:

CON - 141, +1 (34.0%, -0.1%)
LIB - 109 (32.8%, +0.4%)
NDP - 81, -2 (22.9%, -0.2%)
BQ - 6, +1 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.5%, -0.1%)

This is probably just a quirk of how the 2011 results were distributed across ridings. Indeed, the unadjusted projection does show gains for the Liberals:

CON - 129 (32.3%)
LIB - 117 (33.7%)
NDP - 83 (23.5%)
BQ - 8 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.8%)

What Forum and Nanos both suggest is that the Liberals were doing better late in the week than early in the week. We'll find out this afternoon if EKOS saw the same thing.

5 comments:

Francis Jumla said...

Your Seat projection is a big joke. Always in favour of the Conservatives

Francis Jumla said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Election Watcher said...

Read this methodological post:

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/understanding-projections-i-uniform-vs.html

Any further comment from you with the same content will be marked as spam.

Anonymous said...

Quick question about your comment re: EKOS. Do I understand correctly that EKOS did not post an update yesterday because its results mirrored its results from the day before? If that is correct, and EKOS is still reporting a dead heat, might that help explain why your seat predictions haven't changed significantly?

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Brent.

Election Watcher said...

Hey Brent,

1. Yes
2. Normally, a gain of 0.4% for the Liberals (which occurred despite no movement from EKOS), coupled with a small loss for the Conservatives and NDP, would result in a couple of gains for the Liberals, as happened in the unadjusted projection.

Happy Thanksgiving to you too!