Tuesday, October 6, 2015

EKOS: Conservative Lead Shrinks

The first EKOS daily release is out, and while the Conservatives can be happy that they're ahead, the Liberals can rejoice that they are up 4 points in a week and have erased their deficit in ON. It's all bad news for the NDP: 22.2% nationally, tied with Tories at 27.8% in Québec, and a paltry 16.8% in ON.

In the new projection, the Liberals benefit from the reduction of the weight on last week's EKOS poll:

CON - 145, -1 (34.7%, +0.3%)
NDP - 95, -2 (24.8%, -0.4%)
LIB - 94, +3 (29.6%, +0.3%)
BQ - 3 (4.8%, -0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, +0.1%)

Note that I unfroze the AB projection since EKOS has confirmed the Conservative surge and NDP collapse there. However, I am still waiting for more evidence before making the Edmonton adjustment suggested by yesterday's Mainstreet poll.

Without the turnout adjustment, the Liberals are now ahead of the NDP:

CON - 134 (33.0%)
LIB - 100 (30.5%)
NDP - 98 (25.6%)
BQ - 5 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)

Note that I will now be updating the projection twice (and only twice) daily: when I wake up (keep in mind that I live on the West Coast), and after EKOS releases its daily poll.

Also, look for a preliminary guide to strategic voting Thursday night - just in time for the advanced voting.

2 comments:

Fred Yehia said...

What exactly is a 'turnout adjustment' ?

Election Watcher said...

This post describes some aspects of my methodology:

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/09/first-projection-of-2015-tories-still.html