If you are a Canadian citizen over 18 and haven't voted yet, VOTE. You have until (all times local):
- 7pm in the Pacific time zone
- 7:30pm in the Mountain time zone
- 8:30pm in the Central, Atlantic and Newfoundland time zones
- 9:30pm in the Eastern time zone
Find your polling station at Elections Canada's website.
Click here for a summary of the projection.
Click here for the projected winner by riding.
Click here for a roundup and comparison of the various projections.
Click here for the complete trends since early September.
I have less time than I hoped for this, so I'll be brief. All times Eastern.
7pm: Polls close in Newfoundland. The Liberals should handily win all 3 ridings off the Avalon peninsula. They should also carry Avalon, despite the best efforts of Scott Andrews. The NDP will almost certainly win St. John's East. The race to watch is St. John's South--Mount Pearl, where both the projection and a riding poll this week suggest a very tight Liberal/NDP race.
7:30pm: Polls close in the rest of Atlantic Canada. I'm projecting 26 Liberals, 3 NDP and 3 Conservatives - the latter all in NB. Egmont (Gail Shea), Central Nova (Peter MacKay's old riding) and Halifax are all projected to narrowly go Liberal.
At this point, keep a very close eye on the popular vote. In 2011, the Conservatives outperformed polls by a similar margin across English Canada. Therefore, Atlantic Canada may be an early indication of how things are going.
- If the Liberals get above 55-56% and the Tories get below 19-20%, we could be en route to a Liberal majority.
- If the Liberals get below 52-53% and the Tories get above 22% or so, the election could turn out to be a nailbiter.
I will post a brief projection update based on the Atlantic numbers at around 9:15pm EDT.
9:30pm: Polls close in the rest of the country except BC. The big questions are:
- Will the Bloc regain official party status (12 seats)? All projections have the Bloc at 11 seats or less, but there is so much uncertainty that the odds of this happening are still quite decent.
- How well does the NDP vote hold up in Québec? The NDP is projected at 31 seats with 26.3%. But if it drops to, say, 23%, it could be looking at a disaster, and the Liberal odds of a majority would improve significantly.
- How big is the Liberal margin of victory in Ontario? The projection says 10% adjusted, 12.4% unadjusted. If that number climbs above 15%, we might have to stay up late to find out whether the Liberals win a majority. Conversely, if it drops below 8%, the Tories have a good chance of eking out a win.
- Liberal breakthrough in Calgary? Liberal/NDP breakthrough in Edmonton? The Tories have actually trended up strongly in Alberta in the past 2 weeks. The Liberals kept pace, but the NDP lost almost all of the Notley momentum, and its support fell by as much (proportionally) as in Québec since August, i.e. almost half! I think the Liberals have a good shot at 4 ridings (Calgary Centre, Confederation and Skyview, and Edmonton Mill Woods), while the NDP can hope to gain Edmonton Griesbach.
10pm: Polls close in BC. I'm projecting a very efficient vote for the Tories, and a very inefficient vote for the Liberals. Will those pan out? (They are at odds with most other models.) And what's going on in Victoria? With no public poll from that riding, it is difficult to know whether the Greens are on track to win a second seat there.
Enjoy election night, and once again, look for my post around 9:15pm EDT (follow me on Twitter if you need a reminder)!