Sunday, October 18, 2015

EKOS: Liberals Grow ON Lead; Tories Jump in BC

Update: Throughout the day, I will update the projection on the left as new polls come out, and I will tweet the updates. However, I will not write another post until this evening.

Today's (first) EKOS update is out, and while it shows fairly stable numbers nationally, there are some interesting regional movements:
- In Québec, the Tories drop all the way from second to fourth, swapping ranks with the Bloc; the NDP, Liberals and Bloc are all within a 2-point range. In the projection, fully 16 Québec ridings are being won with less than 30% of the vote!
- In Ontario, the Liberal lead widens from 8.3% to 12%.
- In BC, the Tories jump to a 16-point lead over the NDP and the Liberals.
None of these variations are statistically significant - EKOS urges special caution on the BC numbers.

The Bloc jump in QC and Conservative jump in BC cost the NDP (Liberals marginally take another NB seat from the Tories):

LIB - 130, +1 (35.4%, +0.1%)
CON - 127 (33.0%, -0.1%)
NDP - 72, -2 (21.6%, -0.1%)
BQ - 8, +1 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.2%, +0.1%)

The Liberal unadjusted lead widens to over 5 points for the first time, but the Tories benefit from the BC jump:

LIB - 139 (36.5%)
CON - 115 (31.4%)
NDP - 72 (22.2%)
BQ - 11 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.5%)

EKOS will provide another update (and its own projection) with today's data. So we still have at least 3 more polls coming: EKOS, Ipsos and Nanos. They even rhyme! (Though if past elections are any indication, Forum may join the party too.)

16 comments:

Gideon said...

I wonder if BC might be one to watch after all. Forum's numbers for BC during the provincial election were the only ones even close to being accurate, so it'd be interesting to see a final poll from it.

Anonymous said...

Our Province is always an anomaly...and if you were actually born and raised here, it would not surprise you to wake up the day after the election to find that we have again voted without the new government...in fact until the conservatives gained the government, we were eternally electing PC, Reform, Alliance, Ndp etc.....people here will never forget the trudeau finger in Salmon Arm,....he was and is well despised here...if they get any votes here, they get them from emigrants to our province

Francis Jumla said...

I can project a Liberal majority

Anonymous said...

Not happening Francis, they dont have the popular vote at a high enough rate to take the spread necessary to overcome urban concentration

Francis Jumla said...

@Anonymous Maybe you are right. We will find out tomorrow

Francis Jumla said...

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/deadlock-broken-liberals-surging/

Anonymous said...

Like I have said earlier on another post; Quebec will be Cons + Bloc. I see nothing in the latest polls to change my views.

BC is a fight between Orange and Blue; Liberals are toast.

The productive and prosperous regions of Canada are voting for the Cons. Imagine their reactions when perpetual welfare states in the Atlantic provinces give them the Liberal finger. Imagine too how corrupt 'Torontario' mimics the Atlantic region?

Cons - 38 - Libs -33 - NDP - 18 - Bloc 7 - Green - 4

Either that or anarchy.

Francis Jumla said...

Hmmmmmmmm

Anonymous said...

What the other Anonymous said above.....our people in the West will not be happy to have to see our productivity docked by the eastern welfare state....beware in the long run

Anonymous said...

The final polls of the night are all showing Liberal majority or near-majority, but none of the projection sites seem to be taking it into account.

Francis Jumla said...

That's right. Maybe it's either being overly cautious or being in denial. My guts tell me it's a strong Liberal minority or slim majority

Anonymous said...

Nanos has released the final poll and its 39.1% Liberals which would be a strong minority, if not a majority. Since Liberal votes are not as efficient, not yet sure. But it seems like people are determined to oust the incumbent. I so hope JT keeps his word and changes first past the post once and for all and we end up with a better and fairer electoral system and especially more representative.

Francis Jumla said...

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/election/nanos-tracking-liberals-hit-39-1-support-conservatives-30-5-1.2616191

Anonymous said...

Forum has Liberals plus 10, EKOS scrambling to catch up has the Liberals 4+ in front. Mainstream calling for Liberal majority.

Anonymous said...

Its funny...but I only care that BC doesnt get embarrassed...in that I mean I sure hope we continue to send a strong Conservative MP tradition first...do not want liberals here, I can take the pinks and the greens but not those Liberals

Election Watcher said...

@Francis: If the Liberal surge has continued after the weekend's polls, a majority is possible. But since the LPC's vote is not very efficient, they probably need to hit 40% for a majority. Only Forum has had them that high (and Forum, on its own poll only, projects a bare majority of 171 seats).

@Anonymous 6:57pm: Cuz 1993-2006 was such a terrible time for the country under the Liberals, right?

@Anonymous 7:26pm: Yeah, we're already good enough at sapping our own productivity here in BC, with a stupid sales tax system and people voting for gridlock just because people feel that a few executives are getting paid too much.