Update: Throughout the day, I will update the projection on the left as new polls come out, and I will tweet the updates. However, I will not write another post until this evening.
Today's (first) EKOS update is out, and while it shows fairly stable numbers nationally, there are some interesting regional movements:
- In Québec, the Tories drop all the way from second to fourth, swapping ranks with the Bloc; the NDP, Liberals and Bloc are all within a 2-point range. In the projection, fully 16 Québec ridings are being won with less than 30% of the vote!
- In Ontario, the Liberal lead widens from 8.3% to 12%.
- In BC, the Tories jump to a 16-point lead over the NDP and the Liberals.
None of these variations are statistically significant - EKOS urges special caution on the BC numbers.
The Bloc jump in QC and Conservative jump in BC cost the NDP (Liberals marginally take another NB seat from the Tories):
LIB - 130, +1 (35.4%, +0.1%)
CON - 127 (33.0%, -0.1%)
NDP - 72, -2 (21.6%, -0.1%)
BQ - 8, +1 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.2%, +0.1%)
The Liberal unadjusted lead widens to over 5 points for the first time, but the Tories benefit from the BC jump:
LIB - 139 (36.5%)
CON - 115 (31.4%)
NDP - 72 (22.2%)
BQ - 11 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.5%)
EKOS will provide another update (and its own projection) with today's data. So we still have at least 3 more polls coming: EKOS, Ipsos and Nanos. They even rhyme! (Though if past elections are any indication, Forum may join the party too.)