Thursday, October 8, 2015

Forum: Liberals Lead by 4; Nanos: NDP No Longer Sliding

This week's Forum poll is a reversal from last week's, which showed a clear Conservative lead. It is not only good for the Liberals, who lead by 4, but also for the NDP, who are at a relatively high 26% nationally and 34% in Québec. (However, Forum was the pollster that had the NDP up to 40% nationally and 54% in Québec earlier in the campaign, so maybe the NDP numbers don't mean much.) The silver lining for the Tories is that the Liberal lead in ON is only 3 points, less than the national lead.

Today's Nanos suggests that the NDP has stopped sliding - holding steady at 30% in Québec, and actually up a tick to 24% nationally.

We now have 5 pollsters with polls conducted this week, and their most recent numbers are:

Pollster: C-L-N
EKOS: 34-32-21
Ipsos: 33-32-26
Abacus: 33-32-24
Nanos: 32-34-24
Forum: 31-35-26

As you can see, there is really not much divergence, and the race is probably around 33-33-24. (The unadjusted projection below has the NDP a little higher and the Liberals a little lower mainly due to residual weight on earlier polls.) In Ontario, all five pollsters have a Liberal lead of 3-7 points.

The Liberals crack the 100-seat threshold for the first time of the campaign:

CON - 143, -1 (34.5%, -0.3%)
LIB - 100, +3 (30.6%, +0.6%)
NDP - 91, -2 (24.2%, -0.1%)
BQ - 3 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%, -0.3%)

Note that this projection does not take into account riding polls released today. I'll incorporate them with my EKOS update this afternoon.

The unadjusted projection gives:

CON - 133 (32.9%)
LIB - 107 (31.5%)
NDP - 92 (25.0%)
BQ - 5 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)

Don't miss the preliminary strategic voting guide tonight! (It'll come fairly late if you're in the East.)

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