Today's EKOS poll shows a huge bump for the NDP: 3.5 points, even though only 1/3 of the sample was updated from yesterday. The NDP is suddenly back ahead in Québec by 11.8 points and in BC by 4.5 points. Is this bump the start of a new trend? Remember that today's Nanos poll showed no big change for the NDP. For now, the prudent hypothesis is that this is merely mean reversion, as EKOS has had the NDP lower than most other pollsters.
This poll also contains good news for the Liberals, who have a whopping 18.1-point lead in ON. That is almost certainly too large, but does suggest that the 12-point lead seen by other pollsters may be close to the truth. My polling average has the Liberals ahead by 8.8 in Ontario, or 5.5 after the turnout adjustment.
The new projection has the NDP back up a bit:
CON - 134, -1 (33.4%, -0.1%)
LIB - 118 (33.7%, -0.1%)
NDP - 80, +2 (22.8%, +0.2%)
BQ - 5, -1 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%)
This is the first decrease of the campaign for the Bloc. The NDP appears to have leveled off around 80 seats.
The unadjusted projection is now:
LIB - 129 (34.5%)
CON - 118 (31.7%)
NDP - 82 (23.4%)
BQ - 8 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)