Two notes to start:
- Why do projections disagree on who's ahead? See this post for an explanation.
- It's the last day of advanced polls, from noon to 8pm local time! For those of you interested in strategic voting (polls suggest ~30% of you are), see my guide for the advanced polls. It was written Thursday night, and does not take into account polls released subsequently.
Today's Nanos further diverges from EKOS: the Liberals' national lead increases slightly to 6.8%, but more importantly, it is now at 12.5% in Ontario. So who's right? Are the Liberals up by double digits in ON (Innovative 12%, Forum 15%)? Or is ON a tight race (Angus Reid tie, EKOS has Tories ahead by 0.5%)? The answer to this question determines who's the true current seat count leader.
The projection, of course, comes somewhere in the middle: it has the Liberals up by 6.1% in ON, or 2.8% adjusted for turnout.
CON - 142, -1 (34.1%, -0.1%)
LIB - 109, +1 (33.0%, +0.2%)
NDP - 80 (22.6%, -0.1%)
BQ - 6 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)
The unadjusted projection sees the Liberals within 9 seats of the Tories:
CON - 128 (32.4%)
LIB - 119 (33.9%)
NDP - 82 (23.2%)
BQ - 8 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.8%)
Depending on which projection you believe, the Liberals have a 15-40% chance of leading the seat count in the past few days.
There is no EKOS update this afternoon due to Thanksgiving. (Happy Turkey Day!) Usually, Global comes out with an Ipsos poll at 4pm ET/1pm PT on Monday, but it's unclear whether that'll happen today due to the holiday. If it does, I will update the projection this afternoon. If it doesn't, I'll write the second part of the series on understanding projections, which explains where I get the above probabilities from and why I think other websites, with the notable exception of The Globe's Election Forecast, get probabilities/seat ranges wrong.