Today's polls, conducted over the holiday weekend, are to be taken with a grain of salt. However, they match grumbles that have been coming out of the Conservative campaign.
Both EKOS for iPolitics and Ipsos for Global show the Liberals ahead nationally by around 5 points, with:
- 50% or better in Atlantic Canada
- a marginal lead in Québec
- a double-digit lead in Ontario
- around 30% on the Prairies
- a lead in BC.
The NDP slide appears to have slowed or stopped. The Tories had low numbers in these polls. Holiday effect or real shift? The next few days will tell us more. (Note that EKOS shifted to IVR only on Sunday and Monday, which should have benefited the Tories.)
Interestingly, Ipsos had the Greens at 3% in BC, while EKOS has them at 18.7%. This basically cannot be explained by statistical noise, even with small samples.
All this of course had a large effect on the projection:
CON - 137, -5 (33.6%, -0.5%)
LIB - 116, +7 (33.6%, +0.6%)
NDP - 78, -2 (22.7%, +0.1%)
BQ - 6 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%, -0.3%)
The Liberals have caught up with the Tories in the adjusted national vote share, and have taken a marginal lead in the unadjusted projection below:
LIB - 125 (34.5%)
CON - 123 (31.8%)
NDP - 80 (23.3%)
BQ - 9 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)
Things appear to be moving. If polls in the next two days confirm these trends, the Liberals would quickly catch up in the adjusted projection.