Today's EKOS poll is the first genuinely good one for the Tories in a while. They are just 12 points back of the Liberals in the Atlantic, just 3 points back of the NDP in Québec (with the Liberals in between), and 7 points ahead of the NDP in BC (where the Liberals are first, but where there are lots of Conservative/NDP races). Most importantly, this is the first poll in 9 days showing the Tories ahead in Ontario, albeit by an insignificant 0.5 points.
This is also a very bad poll for the NDP: just 19% nationally, 14.2% in ON and 22.2% in BC. This poll nudges the NDP to third place in the BC polling average (note that the weight on this poll is only about 8% - this third place in BC has been a long time coming). The only bright spot is Québec, where they are back in first place (though at a low 27.1%) and 13 points ahead of the Bloc.
This morning, we were wondering if EKOS would confirm or cast doubt on the continued Liberal surge that Nanos and Forum seemed to show. The latter has happened. This poll is not actually bad in an absolute sense for the Liberals (except in the Atlantic, where the sample is tiny) - just bad relative to the Tories that they need to beat.
The updated projection is:
CON - 143, +2 (34.2%, +0.2%)
LIB - 108, -1 (32.8%)
NDP - 80, -1 (22.7%, -0.2%)
BQ - 6 (4.7%, -0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%, +0.1%)
This is the first day in a week where the Conservative projection has increased, and where the Liberal projection has failed to do so. The NDP has fallen in 7 consecutive days, and failed to increase in 20 consecutive days.
The unadjusted seat projection is actually unchanged:
CON - 129 (32.4%)
LIB - 117 (33.7%)
NDP - 83 (23.3%)
BQ - 8 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)
The gap between the adjusted and unadjusted projections has widened. Why? It just so happens that at the current regional numbers, there are inordinately many tight races. In my projection, 30 races are currently being decided by less than 2 points, and 70 by less than 5 points. That's 70 tossups! As the EKOS write-up suggests, turnout is going to be key.