Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Stability in Nanos; Riding Polls

Today's Nanos mostly shows stability, meaning that numbers on Oct. 13 were similar to those on Oct. 9. But Oct. 9 was the day that produced a large drop in Conservative support, and some were wondering if that was a blip due to people having left home for the holiday weekend Friday night. It now looks like that wasn't a blip.

A number of riding polls have been released over the past few days. I have reviewed them, and updated the adjustments made to the model as follows (existing adjustments are listed here and here):

Alberta
Edmonton Centre (update): CON +5, NDP +5, LIB -10
Edmonton Mill Woods (new): CON -5, NDP -5, LIB +10

British Columbia (these are relative to the regional adjustment)
Cariboo--Prince George (new): CON -6, NDP +3, LIB +3
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam (new): CON -5, NDP +5 [note: James Moore not running for re-election]
North Okanagan--Shuswap (new): NDP +5, GRN -5
Vancouver Granville (update): CON +5, NDP +5, LIB -10

Ontario (these are relative to the regional adjustment; Brampton East in the previous post was expressed relative to ON average)
Essex (new): NDP +5, LIB -5
Kenora (cancel Northern Ontario adjustment): NDP +5, LIB -5
Peterborough--Kawartha (new): CON -5, LIB +5
Spadina--Fort York (new): NDP -2.5, LIB +5, GRN -2.5

Québec
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord (update): CON -5, NDP +5
Jonquière (update): CON -10, LIB +5, BQ +5
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount (new): CON -5, NDP +5, LIB -5, BQ +5
Pontiac (new): CON -5, LIB +5

The net effect of all these changes is that the Liberals inch closer to the Tories:

CON - 135, -2 (33.5%, -0.1%)
LIB - 118, +2 (33.8%, +0.2%)
NDP - 78 (22.6%, -0.1%)
BQ - 6 (4.7%, -0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%)

On these numbers, the Liberals have a 25-30% chance of being ahead. The Liberal lead in the unadjusted projection has quadrupled:

LIB - 128 (34.7%)
CON - 120 (31.7%)
NDP - 81 (23.2%)
BQ - 8 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%)

On these numbers, the Liberals have roughly a 60% chance of being ahead.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

ElectionWatch, Are there more polls coming out today ? Also, this is more of a political question rather than a poll question, 'if' JT and the liberals win a minority/majority, depending on current polling results, is there any reason why the conservatives followed such a "appeal to the base" campaign that they hadnt done the last time around or even previous campaigns. Because while the base is still sitting around the 30% that they've always had, did they actually think Quebec would bring them all these extra seats because isnt the conservative vote all concentrated around Quebec city ? Also, even within immigrant communities, they seemed to have pursued the strategy of pitting one group against the other and it was Ontario that gave them the majority the last time so I'm just surprised they followed some of their worst instincts such that both Mulcair and JT doubled down that there was no way that Harper would be allowed to continue even if he got a minority. I honestly thought JT's approach of being relatively positive was foolish considering the relentless conservative attack machine but if the liberals end up winning, it would be amazing! Its just that since these political parties have so much money, are they going to bet the farm on the assumption that voter apathy would continue forever.

Election Watcher said...

Only one for sure is EKOS. I don't have any inside info, though I follow some pollsters on Twitter. I'm guessing everyone else is in the field or about to go in the field for their final poll.

I think the Tories were probably hoping to win 35-28-28, which would have given them such a strong minority that it would have been difficult for either of the other parties to claim the right to form government. I believe that the niqab issue was their undoing: it knocked the NDP off so badly that the Liberals became the clear alternative. If they hadn't played up the niqab issue, the Liberal/NDP vote would possibly still be evenly split.

As you mention, the niqab thing probably also rolled back some of their gains among immigrants. In isolation, it might not have done so. But add with the citizenship and refugee issues, and the cumulative impression is not that of a welcoming party for minorities.

Francis Jumla said...

I love the above analyses. Am no expert on political predictions, but I had a feeling this pandering to The Conservative base was going to backfire. Conservative candidates and their leader Keep repeating half-truths and lies with straight faces. Most people are smart enough to see desperate moves from politicians. Atleast the Polls are more convergent now, unlike the last few weeks. Thanks for the updates

Gideon said...

If the election were to be held today, I do believe it would be a 50/50 fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives. I really doubt that Liberals should be favoured 67% as The Globe's election forecast indicates. I guess it's just the pessimist in me. I put a lot of stock in Angus Reid and Nanos, and I want a more recent poll from Angus Reid before I can begin to relax.

CT said...

I just think this projection is far too circumspect and is clinging to factors that may not apply as they did in 2011. We've seen mass corroboration that the Liberals have a clear lead across every pollster bar Angus Reid. The prediction markets, where a lot of smart money is parked, has the Liberals a clear favorite, with vote and seat levels well above most projection sites. The local polling being done seems to agree with the possibility of a Liberal wave. And Conservative insiders are not quietly confident, trust me. They think they are losing (pop vote and seat count), and in danger of being swamped.

Is that really the prediction you'd feel comfortable sticking with if the election were tomorrow?

Election Watcher said...

@Francis: Glad you're liking the updates.

@Gideon: 67% sounds reasonable if the upside and downside risks from turnout are equal (after all, that's essentially what my unadjusted numbers imply as well). But I totally agree that it seems too high due to strong Conservative support among seniors - that's why I have the adjustment.

@CT: Certainly the noises we're hearing now suggest that the Liberals are in good position. If I had to make a final projection now, I'd probably adjust last week's polls from pollsters that haven't updated their numbers this week. (Angus Reid is not alone: Mainstreet and Abacus' latest public national polls have the Tories leading by 1, while Léger's only has the Liberals ahead by 3 in Ontario.) Since all pollsters should update at some point this week, the actual final projection won't suffer from this issue. Also, I plan to increase the rate at which old polls are discounted starting tomorrow.

However, keep in mind the following:

- Canadian prediction markets are very small and thinly traded (the Sauder market's trading volume is under $2,000 most days, and bid-ask spreads are sometimes huge). I wouldn't put much stock in them.

- Local polling has on average been slightly less favourable to the Liberals than contemporaneous national polls in terms of swing from 2011. Too Close to Call has some posts to this effect.