Friday, October 2, 2015

Léger: NDP, Bloc, Liberals in a Statistical Tie in Québec; Nanos: Liberals Retake Lead

Yesterday's polls might have been all bad news for the Liberals, but today, it's the NDP's turn to wallow in despair. First, the bombshell: Léger, with a sample of 999 in Québec alone, has the NDP at just 28% there. That's statistically tied with the Bloc and the Liberals, who have 24% each. The other news is that Léger puts the Liberals ahead of the Tories by 5 points in Ontario, in sharp contrast with yesterday's Angus Reid poll. Both polls were conducted online, on exactly the same days...

Today's Nanos poll is fairly stable, though the Liberals' 33.5% national number is the best of any poll this campaign, while the NDP's 25.9% is a new low outside of last week's EKOS.

As expected, the NDP is getting punished in the projection update, while the Liberals recover some of the losses from yesterday:

CON - 144, -1 (33.9%, -0.3%)
NDP - 102, -3 (26.4%, -0.3%)
LIB - 88, +3 (29.1%, +0.4%)
BQ - 3, +1 (4.7%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

Without the turnout adjustment, it's:

CON - 132 (32.1%)
NDP - 107 (27.1%)
LIB - 95 (29.9%)
BQ - 3 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)

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