Thursday, October 8, 2015

EKOS: Liberals Lead in Canada, Québec

Today's EKOS poll is very good for the Liberals: since the start of the campaign, it is the first EKOS poll to show a national Liberal lead, and the first poll from anyone to show a Québec Liberal lead. Both of those are, of course, well within the margin of error. EKOS also agrees with Nanos that the NDP slide has slowed/stopped, though the 21.1% is the lowest result of any poll for the NDP since April.

The updated projection is:

CON - 142, -1 (34.4%, -0.1%)
LIB - 101, +1 (30.8%, +0.2%)
NDP - 91 (24.2%)
BQ - 3 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.0%, +0.1%)

Without the turnout adjustment, the Liberals are now just 1% from the Tories:

CON - 133 (32.7%)
LIB - 107 (31.7%)
NDP - 93 (24.9%)
BQ - 4 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)

Don't miss the preliminary guide to strategic voting tonight - just in time for the advanced polls!

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