Saturday, October 3, 2015

Nanos: Liberals Take 4-Point Lead

The daily Nanos is out, and it's the best poll of the campaign for the Liberals: a 4-point national lead and a 10-point lead in ON. Has the Tory rise crested? It's too early to tell. However, the NDP appears to still be sliding.

The new projection gives:

CON - 143 (33.6%, -0.1%)
NDP - 101, -1 (26.2%, -0.1%)
LIB - 90, +1 (29.1%, +0.1%)
BQ - 3 (5.0%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, +0.1%)

Without adjusting for turnout, the projection is:

CON - 129 (31.9%)
NDP - 105 (26.9%)
LIB - 99 (30.0%)
BQ - 4 (5.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)

Mainstreet also published 6 riding polls in ON. Nothing surprising, except that Brampton East is a Liberal/Conservative instead of a Liberal/NDP race. I have no idea if there's any local issue there, but this poll is so far from the projection that it calls for a riding adjustment. Consistent with the adjustments so far, I will change the model in the direction of the poll, but not all the way there. Conservatives +5, NDP -5 in Brampton East. In any case, for now, the riding is Liberal whether one makes a full, partial or no adjustment.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I really enjoy your site. Just wondering if you intend to analyse the poll EKOS released yesterday?

Cheers!

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_2_2015.pdf

Election Watcher said...

I'm glad you like the site! I briefly analyzed the EKOS poll in a post yesterday afternoon:

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/ekos-no-big-change-from-last-week.html