Sunday, October 18, 2015

Nanos: Stability; PROJECTION LEAD FLIPS BACK TO LIBERALS

Today's Nanos poll is essentially the same as yesterday's. There has been small drops in the Liberal leads in QC and ON, but nothing of note as the Liberal number changed by less than 1% in both cases. The NDP lost 3.2 points in BC and is well back of the Liberals and the Conservatives, similar to what Mainstreet showed yesterday.

The Liberals gain and retake the lead in the projection mostly due to the reduction of the weight on old polls:

LIB - 129, +3 (35.3%, +0.2%)
CON - 127, -2 (33.1%, -0.1%)
NDP - 74, -1 (21.7%, -0.2%)
BQ - 7 (4.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.1%)

With two more updates today, there are two more chances for the projection to flip... The unadjusted projection is:

LIB - 140 (36.4%)
CON - 113 (31.5%)
NDP - 74 (22.3%)
BQ - 10 (4.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%)

14 comments:

BothSidesNow said...

Seat Projections from External Websites

The following table lists the latest seat projections from other sources.


DATE BQ CON GRN LIB NDP OTH WEBSITE
2015-10-17 3 117 1 138 79 0 Too Close to Call
2015-10-17 2 124 1 140 71 0 Vox Pop Labs
2015-10-16 6 119 1 132 80 0 election-atlas.ca
2015-10-16 3 122 1 123 89 0 Le calcul électoral
2015-10-16 6 114 2 145 70 1 Sauder Prediction Markets
2015-10-16 6 128 1 129 74 0 Canadian Election Watch
2015-10-16 1 115 1 138 83 0 Election Almanac
2015-10-16 3 120 1 133 81 0 Too Close to Call
2015-10-16 4 128 1 123 82 0 Canadian Election Watch
2015-10-16 2 125 1 138 72 0 Vox Pop Labs
2015-10-16 8 112 2 148 67 1 Sauder Prediction Markets
2015-10-16 2 115 1 139 81 0 Predictionator
2015-10-15 3 110 1 144 80 0 LISPOP
2015-10-15 1 118 1 135 83 0 Three Hundred Eight

Anonymous said...

Nanos polls are slanted heavily to eastern polling regions reflecting a Liberal slant....the West is still Blue and some Orange, save for those very urban Vancouver ridings where the Economics of commerce are blurred by the insular liberal beliefs of people whose lives do not depend on the Resource industries.

Anonymous said...

+Anonymous Good to know! Thanks!

Election Watcher said...

@BothSidesNow: Yes, I'm well aware of Election Almanac - I've linked to that site for years, and follow it on Twitter. This makes my point: for the main parties, my unadjusted projection is similar to other projections.

@Anonymous: All polls are weighted geographically, so I'm not sure what you mean by Nanos polls being slanted to eastern polling stations. They may have the Liberals high for other reasons, but slant to the East would definitely not be the explanation.

Gideon said...

BothSidesNow, just so you know, Canadian Election Watch mopped the floor with basically every other publicly available seat projection for the 2011 election, having the lowest average error.

I'm inclined to trust CEW, and I also have a feeling that the seat reallocation that occurred because of the 'Fair Representation Act' benefits the Conservatives for the most part (because Harper is a liar, cheat, and fraud in every senses of the words).

Election Watcher said...

Well, it's a bit like stocks: future performance cannot be implied from past performance. One big unknown is how much the Liberals have improved their ground game. If they manage to beat the Tories at it and thereby undo the age disadvantage, the unadjusted projection would be more accurate.

Joey Jo Jo said...

Interesting... Abacus won't publish final horserace numbers but does come out with these: http://abacusdata.ca/final-elxn42-poll-expected-winner-and-best-performing-leader/

Pretty easy to determine what their other numbers were when Trudeau scores this highly on other questions.

Election Watcher said...

Yup, they most probably have the Liberals ahead, like the other pollsters. Question is: by how much? 5? 10?

Joey Jo Jo said...

If they were up by 5, the poll would have been published, no?

Anonymous said...

wow.....a lot of prog. conservatives r jumping ship....

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/18/stephen-harper-has-lost-the-moral-authority-to-govern-says-former-pmo-lawyer/

Anonymous said...

Weighted geographically,...hmmm as in what? Vancouver is the same as the Chilcotin? Or Toronto is the same as Kapaskasing? Polls are made and published to reflect what the people who paid for them want. Case in point Insights West has been polling Northern Vancouver Island for well over a month now on a weekly basis, while the numbers were telling them it was a majority for the ndp, they were publishing them, however as the full weight and understanding that this farthest west riding in Southern Canada, is very strong Libertarian and therefore closest to the Conservatives...we havent seen one published in the last 2 weeks from the lefty thinktank. 500/ whatever weighting number you want only matters if they are actually polling all across certain p.rovincial regions...to take a poll in Rural Alberta and say the Tories have a 90% foothold, then weight it for Alberta itself wouldnt make sense either...downtown Edmonton Strathcona is very different from the Foothills...that was my point

Election Watcher said...

@Joey Jo Jo: Maybe. Although with the Forum poll that just came out...

@Anonymous 12:40pm: Perrin has jumped ship a while ago. I know it was him just from the title.

@Anonymous: If you don't trust polls at all, why are you reading this blog?

Anonymous said...

I never said I dont trust polls...I said polls are paid for by certain interests, and when those interests collide with the purchasers beliefs of influence they often become misused. There are many polls that are paid for by trusted news source companies as well, even unions that run against the grain will often commission polls that are neutral in bias. I also make the assumption that not all polls are inherently fixed, just some. CEW...I would have thought surely you, would have that nailed down as an obvious neophyte of things political.

Election Watcher said...

Of course, some polls are partisan. I've excluded a small number of polls for that reason. But I thought we were having a discussion about Nanos. You don't think CTV/Globe and Mail are trusted news sources?