Saturday, October 10, 2015

Angus Reid: Small Tory Lead; Nanos: Tories Drop

(Note: For those of you interested in strategic voting (polls suggest ~30% of you are), see my guide for the advanced polls. It was written Thursday night, and does not take into account polls released subsequently.)

Today's Angus Reid poll gives a marginal lead to the Conservatives nationally, and shows a tie in ON. These are actually not bad news for the Liberals: Angus Reid has had them much lower than other pollsters in every poll it has released this campaign. In August, polls within one week (either way) from the Angus Reid poll had the Liberals at 26-30% nationally and 30-34% in ON; Angus Reid had 24% and 28% 29.5% (28% was among likely voters) respectively; last week, while other pollsters had the Liberals at 32-40% in ON, Angus Reid had them at 28% there. Now, Angus Reid has one of the best track records out there; this election will either cement it (if Liberals indeed underperform) or tarnish it (if everyone else is right).

Other noteworthy tidbits from the Angus Reid poll: the Bloc is at 27% in Québec (though still behind the NDP at 31%), and the NDP is at 36% in BC. The former is a campaign high for the Bloc - no other poll has shown them above 24% in QC, while the latter is the best NDP result in BC since... last week's Angus Reid poll.

The daily Nanos, meanwhile, shows a 2.4% Conservative drop nationally and a 3% drop in ON to 30.7%, a new low for the Tories in the Nanos daily tracking. Nanos now shows the Liberals with 10-point lead in ON. In Québec, after spending 5 days at 30%, the NDP got an uptick to 32%. Finally, in BC, the Greens jumped to a new Nanos daily tracking high of 14.9%.

Adding these polls (and, importantly, reducing the weight on last week's Angus Reid) yields a further Liberal rise:

CON - 140, -1 (34.1%, -0.2%)
LIB - 109, +2 (32.4%, +0.2%)
NDP - 83, -2 (23.1%, -0.1%)
BQ - 5, +1 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%, -0.1%)

With these numbers, the probability of a Liberal win is about 15%.

Without the turnout adjustment, it's of course even tighter:

CON - 129 (32.4%)
LIB - 115 (33.3%)
NDP - 86 (23.8%)
BQ - 7 (4.7%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%)

With these numbers, the Liberals have a one-in-three chance of winning.

6 comments:

Francis Jumla said...

Your seat projection is always skewed in favour of Conservatives. There is no credibility to it

Election Watcher said...

You can use the unadjusted projection if you like. But this is what happened last time:

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2011/05/model-performance-comparison-with-other.html

Yatti420 said...

Again someone with no idea.. Typical Socialist.. Just ignore them!..

Election Watcher said...

To be fair, many non-socialists also see everything through a partisan lens, and some (not sure if many) socialists are reasonable people.

Bryan Breguet said...

I like reading your projections because it makes me feel elss alone in not seeing a Liberal minority at the moment. And like you, even without turnout/undecided adjustments, I do get more CPC than LPC.
Keep up the good work.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Bryan. Keep up the good work too! You'll enjoy my most recent post:

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/2015/10/understanding-projections-i-uniform-vs.html