Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Teeny Tiny Projection Update

No new polls, but reading the news made me realize that there should be an adjustment for Howard Hampton (former ON NDP leader) not running again in Kenora. This swings the riding to a Liberal hold (LIB 31%, NDP 30%, CON 28%).

At the same time, I got rid of some rounding when modifying the 2015 provincial baselines to reflect such adjustments to riding-level 2015 baselines. That swings Québec back to the Liberals (but it's basically a tie either way).

Update Aug. 13: Ugh. I realized that when playing around with regional adjustments, I missed a row when I pasted the one I settled on in the end. That row is Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques, which should be marginally Liberal rather than NDP.

Seats projected ahead as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 4)
LIB - 157 158
CON - 142
NDP - 22 21
BQ - 11
GRN - 5
IND - 1
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The popular vote projections are not affected by these updates.

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