Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Minor Update to 2015 Baseline

I've taken another look at the situation in Skeena--Bulkley Valley, where Nathan Cullen is retiring. There's no new information, but I've decided that holding off on any adjustment was too cautious. You can view the update here.

The NDP is still favoured in this riding, but the Tories are now within striking range (behind by 6-7%). Given that the adjustment is pretty cautious, I wouldn't be surprised if things are even tighter.

This update marginally changes the projection by 0.1 for the Tories and NDP.

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