Frank Graves of EKOS has also tweeted some provincial results (ON and QC) for polling conducted this week. However:
a) he did not provide the full national numbers, and
b) he did mention that, despite weakness in ON and QC, the Tories lead by 5 nationally.
As a result, adding the ON and QC figures to the model would mean only adding the Liberal-favouring parts of a poll. Therefore, I will not be adding these results to the model.
Nevertheless, the good Liberal numbers in ON are consistent with the two other most recent polls (here and here) - all three of these polls show the Liberals up 11 points or more in ON. At the same time, the poor Conservative number in QC suggests that recent encouraging numbers for the Tories there may be due to random noise.
It will be interesting to see what Abacus shows in its release planned for tomorrow. Abacus numbers tend to be quite stable over time (which suggests that it may weight responses aggressively). Its last two polls had the Liberals up by only 1 point in ON. If Abacus also shows a big Liberal lead there, it could be time to start asking seriously what's going on in ON (or is it just Doug Ford?).
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