Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, August 16, 2019

Another Small Methodology Improvement

I have refined the method by which I obtain expected numbers of seats, which no longer ignores the party projected third in a district (but is still approximate).

I was expecting this to help the Greens, but to my surprise, it actually helped the Conservatives. Indeed, the seats where the Greens are leading tend to be three-way races (which means that they were slightly overestimated), while in the seats where they are third, they are mostly such a distant third that this doesn't make much difference.

That said, the change for all parties is under 1 seat - as expected, the previous method was already reasonably accurate. The numbers are now:
LIB - 152.0
CON - 144.1
NDP - 23.4
BQ - 13.6
GRN - 3.8
IND - 0.6
PPC - 0.5

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