Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Projection Update: Corbett 8/11-13 and Global News/Ipsos 8/16-19

The following polls have been added to the model:
Global News/Ipsos' 8/16-19 national poll (current weight among national polls: 24 28%; only publicly available national numbers used)
Corbett Communications' 8/11-13 ON poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Update Aug. 20: Poll weights updated after information about the number of respondents was obtained. This resulted in small changes (under 0.5 seats and 0.1% per party, as shown below).

Once again, EKOS put out some ON and QC numbers that are much more favourable for the Liberals, relative to the polling average, than the national numbers, which weren't fully provided. Therefore, once again, to avoid biasing the projection by including only the parts of a poll favourable to one party, I am not adding the EKOS numbers to the model (especially since it was also noted that EKOS' unpublished ON numbers from other nights aren't quite this strong for the Liberals).

Please note that this projection reflects an adjustment in Longueuil--Saint-Hubert to account for Pierre Nantel switching allegiance. (The adjustment actually makes no visible difference due to that riding still projected as a LIB/BQ race.)

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 17.5)

LIB - 155.2 155.3 (33.4%)
CON - 140.1 139.7 (35.1%)
NDP - 24.9 25.3 (14.1 14.2%)
BQ - 13.0 12.9 (4.3 4.2%)
GRN - 3.8 (9.9 9.8%)
IND - 0.6

PPC - 0.5
If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The Ipsos poll helped the NDP, but had little effect on the projection for the two main parties: it is slightly less favourable to the Liberals than other polls, but including it also reduced (in fact, made negative) the weight on the July Ipsos poll which was much worse for the Liberals. The Global News article showed some very good Liberal numbers in QC and poor ones in ON; however, those were not included because the other parties' numbers were not provided. (The non-inclusion of Ipsos and EKOS ON numbers roughly balances out.) I also had to back out the number of respondents from the margin of error. If this were during the campaign, it would actually be illegal for Global to report the poll without stating the number of respondents... (Update: The number of respondents is available in this tweet.)

The projection improved for the Liberals and worsened for the Conservatives mainly due to the Corbett poll, which shows a healthy Liberal lead in ON.

In terms of seats projected ahead, relative to the last projection:
- LIBs retake Québec from CONs.
- Update: LIBs retake Laurentides--Labelle from BQ.
- NDP retakes Berthier--Maskinongé from BQ. (Note that, as a policy, I do not include leaked internal polling.)
- LIBs retake St. Catharines, Vaughan--Woodbridge, Cambridge from CONs.
- LIBs retake Hamilton East--Stoney Creek from NDP.
- NDP retakes North Island--Powell River (update: and Burnaby South) from CONs.

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