Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Projection Update: Léger 8/27-29, Mainstreet Riding Poll

The following polls have been added to the model:
Léger's 8/27-29 national poll (current weight among national polls: 28%)
Mainstreet's 8/27-28 Vancouver Granville poll
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

The Léger poll is the first national poll in 4 weeks (since Mainstreet's late July poll) showing the Liberals ahead, on the basis of strong Atlantic and BC results. The numbers in all other regions are very close to current polling averages. The poll oversampled QC (1,001 respondents), and provided a very useful breakdown of the province, which I used to update sub-provincial adjustments.

The Mainstreet poll is very close to what the model was expecting - a bit better for the LIBs, and a bit worse for the CONs. Therefore, in Vancouver Granville, the adjustment for the LIBs is changed from -10% to -9%, and the adjustment for CONs is changed from -10% to -11%. (Update Sept. 1 and 5: The adjustments have changed slightly after contemporaneous EKOS and Abacus BC numbers subsequently come out.)

Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 28)
LIB - 158.8 (34.3%)
CON - 141.9 (35.9%)
NDP - 19.6 (12.7%)
BQ - 13.2 (4.4%)
GRN - 3.6 (9.5%)

PPC - 0.5
IND - 0.5

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

The LIBs have gained 5 seats in the projection in the past week, mostly from the CONs. This is not at all a big change (the CON-LIB gap shrank by less than 1 point), but still the largest we've seen in August. I will likely write a post on projection trends (with past projections retroactively computed to net out the methodological tweaks I've been making) this weekend, so stay tuned!

Seats changing hands since the last projection:
- LIBs regain Charlottetown from CONs.
- BQ takes Laurentides--Labelle and Laurier--Sainte-Marie from LIBs.
- LIBs take Vancouver Granville from Wilson-Raybould.
- LIBs take Victoria from GRNs.

Please enjoy the updated images below:

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