Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Projection Update: Mainstreet 7/30-31

Update Aug. 9: Due to small modifications to the model, parts of this post have been revised; the revisions are underlined.

The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 7/30-31 national poll (current weight among national polls: 38%)
The high weight is due to this poll's relatively large sample size and the dearth of other recent polls. Because Mainstreet's earlier poll now has a weight of -12%, it does not disproportionately dominate the polling average. View the poll weighting methodology here.
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Seats projected ahead as of the latest national poll (midpoint: July 30.5)
LIB - 155 152 (32.8%)
CON - 150 151 (36.1%)
NDP - 17 18 (13.0%)
BQ - 11 (4.1%)
GRN - 4 5 (10.7%)
IND - 1 (Wilson-Raybould)

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Relative to the last projection (which has also been revised):
- Tories pick up one seat in NL from Liberals: Avalon.
- Tories pick up one seat in NS from Liberals: South Shore--St. Margaret's.
- Tories pick up two seats in PE from Liberals: Egmont, Charlottetown.
- The NDP picks up one seat in QC from Liberals: Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques.
- Liberals pick up seven seats in ON from Tories: Mississauga--Streetsville, Oakville, Mississauga--Lakeshore, Markham--Stouffville, Kitchener South--Hespeler, St. Catharines, Vaughan--Woodbridge.
- Liberals pick up one two seats in ON from the NDP: Nickel Belt, Ottawa Centre.
- Tories pick up one seat in MB from Liberals: Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley.
- Tories pick up both the last NDP seats in SK: Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, Saskatoon West.

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