Projection Update: Abacus 8/2-6

The following poll has been added to the model:
Abacus' 8/2-6 national poll (current weight among national polls: 28%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

This Abacus poll was relatively strong for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and QC. In ON, while it is not as high for the Liberals as other recent polls, the Liberal lead has grown from 1 to 5 points relative to the two previous Abacus polls.

This was also a good poll for the NDP, as were Abacus' two previous polls. So it seems like Abacus is pretty consistently high on the NDP these days.

Seats projected ahead as of the latest national poll (midpoint: August 4)

LIB - 159 (33.5%)
CON - 141 (35.4%)
NDP - 21 (13.7%)
BQ - 11 (4.2%)
GRN - 5 (10.0%)
IND - 1 (Wilson-Raybould)

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

Caution: The Liberals are winning disproportionately many tight races, so the expected number of seats is probably closer to something like 155-145. Still, the projection keeps improving for them thanks to strength in key areas.

Relative to the last projection:
- Liberals take back one seat in NL from Tories: Avalon.
- Liberals take three seats in NS from Tories: Central Nova, South Shore--St. Margaret's, Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook.
- Liberals take back one seat in PE from Tories: Egmont.
- Liberals take back one seat in QC from the NDP: Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques.
- Liberals take back one seat in QC from Tories: Québec.
- Liberals take back one seat in QC from the Bloc: Laurier--Sainte-Marie.
- The NDP takes back two seats in ON from Liberals: Ottawa Centre, Nickel Belt.
- Liberals take one seat in ON from Tories: Richmond Hill.
- Tories take back one seat in AB from Liberals: Calgary Skyview.
- The NDP takes one seat in BC from Tories: Burnaby South.