Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Nanos: Today's Leader - Conservatives

The Nanos daily tracking poll for CTV is out, and today's numbers show the Tories back in first, with strong gains in Western Canada. However, in Ontario, the Tories are actually slightly weaker than yesterday, so the increase in their national number does not have a large seat projection impact.

The new projection yields:

CON - 130 (31.0%, +0.1%)
NDP - 114, -1 (30.9%, -0.2%)
LIB - 93, +1 (28.9%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.6%, +0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%, -0.1%)

For the first time since September 2, the Conservatives lead the projected popular vote. But that's entirely due to the turnout adjustment! Without it, the NDP would still be ahead by 2.1% over the Liberals, and the Tories would in fact be third, fractionally trailing the Grits.

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