Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Forum: Modest Lead for Tories

The newest Forum poll is out, and it shows the Tories ahead by 4 points over the NDP and the Liberals. This is the first non-Nanos poll of the campaign where the NDP does not lead the Liberals, and where it is under 30% (if you round the EKOS numbers). 33% is also the highest national number for the Tories so far.

Despite the small sample size, no regional number is out-of-whack, except for the NDP at 21% in BC.

The newest projection gives:

CON - 135, +2 (31.7%, +0.3%)
NDP - 113, -1 (29.9%, -0.2%)
LIB - 89, -1 (28.5%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%, -0.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

The Liberals are now back to where they were on Sept. 2 (despite being still up 0.6% on the popular vote), but in the meantime, the Tories gained 9 seats, while the NDP lost 9.

The unadjusted seat count hasn't changed from the last update, but the percentages are now:
NDP 30.6%, CON 30.0%, LIB 29.2%, GRN 5.7%, BQ 3.7%.
The NDP is in danger of relinquishing its unadjusted lead for the first time of the campaign.

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