Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Nanos: Today, It's the Liberals

For the fifth day in a row, there has been a chance in leader in the Nanos tracking poll for CTV, and in the past six days, each party has led twice. Today's gap between first and third is the smallest yet: just 0.8%.

The new projection is:

CON - 127, -1 (30.9%, +0.1%)
NDP - 115 (30.9%, -0.2%)
LIB - 95, +1 (29.0%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.7%, +0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.5%, -0.1%)

There's a near perfect tie in the popular vote: the Tories lead the NDP by just 0.01% (yes, that's 0.01, not 0.1). Without the adjustment, the NDP still has a small lead: 31.7% vs. 29.8% for the Liberals and 29.3% for the Conservatives.

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