Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Daily Nanos: Tories Recover Slightly

Today's Nanos numbers have the Tories back up (and the NDP back down) to the 28-day average from August 8 to September 4, while the Liberals stay in the lead nationally.

The updated projection has the Tories back in front, mostly since the Liberals' strength in the Atlantic is eating into what should have been relatively safe NDP seats (much like NDP strength in Québec is taking away what are normally safe Liberal ridings there):

CON - 120, +1 (29.6%, +0.5%)
NDP - 118, -2 (31.5%, -0.1%)
LIB - 99, +1 (29.8%)
GRN - 1 (4.4%, -0.4%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%)

It looks like the abysmal Tory numbers over the weekend (26% nationally) were a blip, though of course 28-29% in the polls (and about 30% after adjustment) is still quite weak.

Note that the Tories lead the seat count, but are third in the popular vote...

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