Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Mainstreet Riding Polls

Mainstreet Research put out three riding polls today. These are not included in projections for now, but I may incorporate them closer to the election. Below is a quick comparison of the current projection (without turnout adjustment) and the riding poll results:

Calgary Confederation: I have the Tories up by 3%, Mainstreet has the Liberals up by 1%
This one is simply very close.

Spadina--Fort York: I have the NDP up by 16%, Mainstreet has the NDP up by 6%
A Forum riding poll last month had the NDP up by 29%. So if you average the two riding polls, you get close to the projection.

Ajax: I have the Liberals up by 15%, Mainstreet has the Tories up by 2%
This one is more of a head-scratcher. Chris Alexander did get a fair bit of attention in the news two weeks ago, but it was hardly flattering. In any case, either way, he is clearly in danger of losing his seat.

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