Contradictory polls this morning! The daily Nanos for CTV has the Tories up to second place, the Liberals down but still first, and the NDP slumping to third, below 30% for the first time in any poll conducted entirely after the start of the campaign. By contrast, Forum still has the NDP at 36%, clearly ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives. However, a good chunk of the NDP lead in the Forum poll is due to its 53% share among the 18-to-34 age group; discounting that age group due to its lower propensity to vote should show a much tighter race.
The new projection has the Liberals losing many seats to the Tories, mainly in ON:
CON - 125, +5 (30.3%, +0.7%)
NDP - 119, +1 (32.0%, +0.5%)
LIB - 93, -6 (29.2%, -0.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.0%, -0.4%)
BQ - 0 (3.4%, -0.3%)
While Nanos has the Grits holding at 40%+ there, with the NDP at just 20.5%, Forum has the NDP marginally ahead of the two other parties. Today's Nanos didn't move the numbers much since yesterday's Nanos showed roughly the same thing in ON; the Forum poll, however, is the first of nine (excluding overlapping Nanos polls) not having the Liberals lead in ON. A blip, or is ON back to a three-way race?
This week's EKOS should be out later today, and at that point, I'll do a roundup of the changes that occurred in the past week.
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