Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Nanos: Liberals Lead; Projection Update: NDP Ahead in Seat Count, Liberals Gain

Today's Nanos tracking for CTV is out, and for the first time since the start of the campaign, the Liberals are ahead in a poll. What's more, in ON, they are at 43% against 33% for the Tories and just 18% for the NDP. Most probably the ON numbers are exaggerated - small sample size - but as I wrote previously, if the ON anti-Conservative vote goes Liberal, it won't be a fun time for either Harper or Mulcair.

The new projection has the Conservatives dropping to second in the seat count behind the NDP, and third in the vote share behind the Liberals:

NDP - 120, +1 (31.6%, -0.3%)
CON - 119, -4 (29.1%, -0.2%)
LIB - 98, +3 (29.8%, +0.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.8%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%, -0.1%)

The NDP gained two seats in Québec from the Liberals, and are now essentially maxed out. (I have Trudeau winning by 12% in Papineau, though as reported by La Presse, the NDP is trying to appeal to separatist voters' "fantasy" of defeating Trudeau.) The Liberals took one seat from the NDP and four from the Tories elsewhere.

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